Kevin Helms
Economist David Rosenberg Warns of ‘Crash Landing’ and Recession, Citing Fed Data
Famed economist David Rosenberg has warned of a “crash landing” and an impending recession for the U.S. economy. Referring to the Philadelphia Fed’s manufacturing index chart, he stressed: “Take a good hard look at this chart and tell me we are heading into a ‘soft’ or ‘no’ landing. More like a ‘crash’ landing.”
Economist Expects a Crash Landing
Famed economist David Rosenberg warned that the U.S. economy may be headed for a crash landing in a tweet last week. Rosenberg is the president and chief economist of Rosenberg Research. He was previously chief economist and strategist at private wealth management firm Gluskin Sheff and chief North American economist at Merrill Lynch in New York.
Sharing a chart on Twitter Thursday showing the Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia’s manufacturing business outlook since 1968, he wrote:
Take a good hard look at this chart and tell me we are heading into a ‘soft’ or ‘no’ landing. More like a ‘crash’ landing.
Rosenberg further noted that the Philadelphia Federal Reserve (Philly Fed) has accurately predicted recessions in the United States with 100% accuracy in the past. He wrote:
Philly Fed at a level that is 8 for 8 on the recession call and with no head fakes.
The Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing Index is based on the monthly Business Outlook Survey of manufacturers in the Third Federal Reserve District, which is home to over 13.3 million people in Delaware, southern New Jersey, and eastern and central Pennsylvania. The survey has been conducted each month since May 1968. The index in the U.S. ticked up 1 point to -23.2 in March.
Charlie Bilello, chief market strategist at wealth management firm Creative Planning, similarly explained on Twitter in February how the Philly Fed Manufacturing Index accurately predicted recessions in the past, stating:
In the past (data since 1968), every time this indicator was at or below current levels the U.S. economy was either in or approaching a recession.
A number of prominent voices in the financial industry are predicting a crash and a severe recession for the U.S. economy. Rich Dad Poor Dad author Robert Kiyosaki recently warned of a “crash landing ahead.” The “Big Short” investor Michael Burry compared the current banking turmoil to the Panic of 1907. Economist Peter Schiff expects the current financial crisis to be worse than in 2008. Meanwhile, venture capitalist Balaji Srinivasan said Friday that hyperinflation is happening now, expecting the price of bitcoin to jump to $1 million in less than 90 days.
Do you agree with economist David Rosenberg that the U.S. economy is on a trajectory toward a crash landing and a recession? Let us know in the comments section below.
