Jordan Lyanchev
This Is What We Can Expect After the 2024 Bitcoin Halving According to Historical Patterns
With just a few weeks left until the completion of the fourth halving in BTC’s history, crypto analysts, experts, and commentators rush to offer their views on what can and might transpire in the following months.
History shows that Bitcoin’s price has reacted quite positively during the cycle that starts with the halving, which is to be expected, given its effect on the network – after all, the production of new BTC is slashed in half, and if the demand for the asset remains the same or increases, the price should go up as well.
Ever wondered what #Bitcoin did on the halving day?
In 2012, BTC moved sideways on the halving day and then pumped from $12 to $1166 after the halving. That’s a 9500% increase in just 380 days.
In 2016, BTC also moved sideways on the halving day and then dropped by -29% a few… pic.twitter.com/GFoH9R9OvT
— Mags (@thescalpingpro) April 7, 2024
The first halving took place in late November 2012 and reduced the production rate from 50 BTC to 25 BTC per block. According to a tweet from the popular crypto analyst Mags, the cryptocurrency’s price was quite sluggish on the day of the event. However, the months that followed saw a massive bull run, resulting in gains of 9,500% in just over a year (from $12 to $1,166).
The next one, in early July 2016, saw the block reward decline by another 50% to 12.5 BTC. Bitcoin’s price also remained calm on the day of the event, but dropped by almost 30% within the first week.
That was short-lived as the largest cryptocurrency went on a roll again in the next 500 days and shot up by 4,100% – from $470 to the then-all-time high of nearly $20,000.
May 11, 2020, just right after the COVID-19-induced crash, saw the third halving. BTC was on a wild ride back then and had declined by about 17% in the days leading up to the event.
The subsequent bull run did not start immediately, but once it picked up, BTC’s price soared from about $8,700 to the November 2021 ATH of $69,000 (700%).
What’s different about the upcoming fourth halving is that Bitcoin has already broken its previous all-time high and charted a new one in early March of just under $74,000. Still, it would be interesting to follow the asset’s price movements in the next few weeks, on the day of the event, and, of course – in the following months.
Some predictions forecast a price tag of around $200,000 for this cycle, and if you want to see a strategy that might be quite profitable to employ before and after each halving, click here.
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