As Americans continue to deal with rising inflation, on Tuesday the spread between 2-year and 10-year Treasury yields inverted, signaling the U.S. economy may be headed for a recession. This week, a myriad of financial reports have noted that the U.S. dollar’s reserve currency status could be undermined. Moreover, there’s also the possibility of crude oil prices reaching upwards of $250 per barrel, according to a top hedge fund manager.
Ominous Inverted Yield Curve Sends Recession Signals, While the Dollar’s Reserve Currency Status Is QuestionedOn March 29, a closely observed bond market indicator flashed a signal that usually indicates the U.S. economy is due for a recession. The signal took place in Treasury bond markets as the spread between 2-year and 10-year Treasury notes inverted for the first time since 2019. The following day, the yield curve inverted once again as 2-year bonds reached 2.377% on Wednesday, and 10-year notes slid as low as 2.334%. The inversion has taken place while inflation in the U.S. has been red hot and the Federal Reserve prepares to tighten monetary easing tactics and raise the benchmark bank rate. There’s also been a number of reports in recent times that question whether or not the U.S. dollar could lose the fiat currency’s reserve currency status. The Economist asks: “Will dollar dominance give way to a multipolar system of currencies?” in a recent report, and the financial authors at Barron’s and South China Morning Post (SCMP) ask the same question or claim de-dollarization will fail.
Top Trend Forecaster Says as Long as War Ensues ‘the Odds of a Global Recession Increase’ — Crude Oil Could Skyrocket as High as $250 per BarrelGerald Celente, a trend forecaster and publisher of the Trends Journal, doesn’t have a bright outlook on the economy and recently said we’ve progressed from the “Covid War to World War III.”
“[The Covid] War has taken a toll on the global economy that is not being recognized nor reported,” Celente tweeted on Thursday. “And while the ‘Bigs’ have gotten bigger with merger and acquisitions and stock buy-backs at all-time highs, on Main Street, increasing economic hardship prevails… and will worsen,” he added. Celente further added:
COVID WAR to WW III— Gerald Celente (@geraldcelente) March 31, 2022
As long as the Ukraine War ensues, and sanctions remain in place against Russia, as we have greatly detailed in the last two editions of the Trends Journal, the odds of a global recession increase, as will its severity.Celente’s recent Trends in the News blog post on substack.com highlights how some executives are predicting oil prices to rise as high as $250 per barrel. The trend forecaster quoted Pierre Andurand’s recent quote when the hedge fund manager at Andurand Capital Management said it’s possible crude oil prices per barrel could hit $250 this year. Celente’s research delves down into more experts who believe crude oil prices per barrel could skyrocket. Celente also quotes Trafigura trader Ben Luckock who explained oil could top $150 this summer.